The equation is simple: If we beat the Waratahs in Sydney this Friday night we make the top 4. That's it. If we beat the Tahs there is no way we can't make it in. If a few results go our way - the Crusaders beat the Brumbies and the Stormers lose to the Bulls [regardless of whether they get four tries and lose by less than 7] while we win with a bonus point - we can be back in Wellington next weekend. Hell, if we just win, the Crusaders beat the Brumbies and the Stormers lose without gaining a bonus point, we can get a home semi. But that's not the important thing.

The important thing is we have to win. If we lose we're out, there's no 'mathematical chance'.

Before I get into the teams, I'd like to take a brief trip down the history lane. The Hurricanes have met with the Waratahs 15 times, winning 8 and losing 7. If we take out the semi we won against them in 2006, both teams have won half of the games we've played. Three out of our seven wins have been by more than 13 points, while the Waratahs have beaten us by more than 13 4 times.

Since that 2006 semifinal win [by two points] however, we have not beaten the Tahs. Not once. Last year we lost 26-22, in 2008 there was that incredibly embarrassing 20-3 loss and the last time we met in round 14, 2007, we lost 38-14. That loss was also pretty embarrassing as although we weren't in contention for a top 4 spot, we should have beaten the Tahs. Until that final round, the Tahs had only won two matches - against the Lions and Reds.

These recent losses would suggest the Tahs have the wood on us, but it'll be interesting to see how the teams match up. I haven't watched a Tahs game in full since round 8 but at that point in the season they had not shown anything dramatic to impress me.

Their main strength has been their forward pack. Their loose forwards have adjusted to the new interpretations really well and are great at drawing penalties, particularly re-repatriated Kiwi Dean Mumm. Their front row hasn't appeared to be very good at scrum time, more so [again] at drawing penalties, but is a mobile unit which travels around the field at a great rate of knots.

Their backline has been an enigma. Sure, they've got Berrick Barnes, Tom Carter, Rob Horne, Drew Mitchell and Lachie Turner, but until they put Kurtley Beale [who I think is the JaMarcus Russell of S14 rugby] in at Fullback, they looked incredibly clunky and disjointed. In fact, the majority of the time their only saving grace was Barnes' ability to draw and pass. The only way to disrupt his playmaking ability has appeared to be to get at him.

If someone can get in his face quickly on each phase he tends to rush things, seemingly lacking the ability to simply take the tackle and go to the next phase [Hurricanes fans will be familiar with this style of play, having spent years cringing with Jimmy Gopperth in the side] and favours the step. If we could change our defensive style [though I don't see this happening as it's too large a change to make in a week] and have Piri/Tyson rush at Barnes from the ruck and Cruden cover, it could do a lot to nullify Barnes and also take away the cross-field kick he likes to send to those speedsters, Lachie and Drew.

Their problem appears to be in the centres - they've got two quality wings but can't get the ball out to them quickly enough - while that's one of the Canes' strengths. With Conrad 'Snakey' Smith and Ma'a Nonu we've got a centre pairing which will always be a tough opposition, but since the Crusaders game Ma'a has been in tremendous form [though I do wish he'd pass more often sometimes] and Conrad has been rock solid on defence.

Our forward pack has been - dare I say it - the best out of the NZ sides this competition. We've got the best scrummaging forward pack of all the teams, in my jaded opinion, and the work rate across the field of Victor Vito, Michael Paterson and Andrew Hore is phenomenal. Our problem though has been an indecisiveness at the ruck. We seem to struggle to decide whether to clean out or protect the ball when we're on attack, and whether to try and steal it or guard the fringes when we're on defence.

But our biggest concern heading into this week should be the Tahs biggest strength, the long bomb. We've got Cory Jane who's insanely gifted under the high ball, but aside from that there's Tamati Ellison and Hosea Gear - both are capable enough under the kick, but can't really return serve. And I'm not sure how they will compare to two of the fastest chasers in Australia without being able to rely on the kick to regain territory. If we can stick to our gameplan - phase play using the backs - and not get sucked in to a kicking battle, I think we'll have it in the bag. I'd love to see us get a semi at home, but ultimately let's just go out there and beat the Tahs and get in to the top 4!

•  At the other end of the table, the Lions play the Cheetahs this week and may create a bit of history if they lose. They'll be the first team to lose every game in the Super 14, and the second Super team to go through a season not winning a game since the Bulls in 2002.
• This year's Lions outfit has already conceded the most points ever in Super Rugby after that 2002 team, and if they lose by more than 2pts this weekend they'll officially hold the worst points differential in history. But seeing what that Bulls team has achieved in the last 8 years may give them hope...

A fair bit of attention has been given to the SA S14 teams lately and rightly so. The Stormers pulled off a very rare clean sweep of NZ teams after they beat the Crusaders, and they and the Bulls both appear to be heading to the final.

The Bulls have been the form team in the competition - despite what others may have said - for the last 2 1/2 years. They've got there with the help of a lot of factors. You know what isn't one of them? Having their national representative players involved in their domestic competition.

Rugby in SA is a complex beast and hard to understand. Often things which go on in the republic get completely overlooked here, and it's a shame because in order to understand your opponent it is often beneficial to look at where they've come from. I've tried to follow the twists and turns of their governance over the last couple of years, but as an outsider it's simply impossible.

For example, I cannot remember hearing a thing about Kamp Staaldraad, what sounds like a truly horrific experience and one I cannot comprehend, especially considering the players were professionals. It may have gotten attention at the time, but I cannot remember it. If someone else can, please correct me in the comments.

What's our closest experience of something similar? Oh yeah, the rest and rotation policy where we got our titties in a twist because players weren't allowed to play in the S14. Puts it in perspective and when you think that 8 of the 2003 team who went to Kamp are still playing, including Bakkies Botha and Victor Matfield, it may go some way to explaining their unrelenting psychology [even though John Smit says they enjoyed it].

Also, an issue in NZ which has recently reached the politic fore is the NZRU's refusal to apologise for their historic decision not to select Maori players when touring SA. In SA, there have been repeated calls to have the man who exposed Kamp be thanked and honoured. Two separate issues, but both showing that rugby boards often stick to their own guns and ignore the wishes of the public even when it's just one word.

Then, like everything else in SA, there's the politics. We heard the cries of 'trophy coach' with regard to Peter de Villiers when he was given the role, but that's only the start of it. With Oregan Hoskins SARU appears to have finally lucked into a decent president, but the man before him - Brian van Rooyen - sounds like a right pillock.

Van Rooyen, by all accounts, sounds like the corrupt politician accepting bribes from oil companies and allowing them to dump waste on beaches. His actions, that I can uncover, were wholy unjust and one wonders how he managed to retain power.

For example, it is alleged he paid one of the member unions and promised them a tier-1 international test in return for their support in his re-election campaign. He was also regularly known to play favourites, allocating Springbok tests to unions who had supported his notions in the past.

But rugby in SA has not always been bad. Their ability to retain players - either those who attract foreign interest or those recovering from injury - is second to none and something NZ and Australia could learn from. The current SARU board has also had their eyes to the future and have implemented several incredible measures, the most obvious of which is the creation of several rugby academies for young adults.

Already those rugby factories are starting to churn out players - the most notable so far is Pierre Spies - and it is a move which is benefiting SA immensely, similar to the Australian Institute of Sport.

NZ meanwhile potters on with a rugby academy in Palmy and the Millenium Institute in Auckland [a fantastic facility] and I do wonder if we'll be left behind. It's one thing to develop talent, it's another to train it from a young age to be prepared for the big stage.

NZ rugby and the NZRU have their own problems, but it's just worthwile to note that part of the reason SA has been peaking since 2007 probably has a lot to do with where they came from, and the measures they've put in place to achieve significant results in the near future.

Following on from the last post, I have a hypothetical question. At this stage in the 2010 Super 14 there is one team [the Crusaders] in the top 4 and the Hurricanes still have a chance to get in - but must in their last 3 games, including two against teams above them, to stand a chance of getting in.

The Crusaders, who currently lie in third, face the two teams above them over the next fortnight, then the team currently sitting 6th.

If either the Hurricanes or Crusaders drop one game and results don't go their way they could be out of the top 4 and their season may be over.

What happens if both teams don't make the semis?

We've already seen crowds decline at matches, and anecdotally interest in Super Rugby and domestic rugby appears to be down, while people are - for whatever reason - growing disenchanted with an All Blacks team which was actually more successful over the last decade than in the 90s.

So without an NZ team to support even just to be a dick to the Aussies at work, what happens? Do people tune out and get excited again next year?

Or more realistically do they read the doomsday scribbles of Rattue et all and believe them?

Boomshanka starts us off with the lead-off single on the Blues

yeearch...

Sometimes when you get close there's no cigars for you.

The enertainment delivered, the lead changed, the Blues backs had
solidity, but 'just scored' complacency crept into the game... not
good against a hungry New South Welshman at home... chewing on the cud
and  shit. in that field that time.

What will the Blues make of this? Season vapour? Still semi's
potential if they focus?

Fuck Yeah. Aspects are improving. They are developing a rhythm. But
this is where it gets hard(er). And opportunitys like that will
require the opposition being in the coffin and having the nail put
into it.

Then there's Richard Irvine's interpretation of the Chiefs

Hopefully at the end of this season, we'll be laughing about this low point when we're celebrating our first Super 14 title while dancing through the streets of Hamilton trying to keep down Waikato Draught burps (WD is notoriously gassy, team).

Yes, this was a shitty game, and I was really shitty afterwards, having wasted valuable Friday night sleeping time (you may imagine the sportreview life is a rock n roll one, but you'd be wrong, very wrong) to watch it live. The Chiefs were up against a wave of emotion on the back of Julian Huxley's return to Rugby after a brain tumour and offside adjudicating as fair as a kick in the nuts.

And yet we were right in it until the end. I can't understand why Masanga wasn't given more ball, he looked dangerous to me. I also can't understand why we kicked all our posession away as if he ball was covered in sick. The bright spot was the defence - which was lucky, as we spent vast periods of time in our own half and without the ball like 15 unemployed ball boys.  

So, like I say, let's move on. Those wins on the road are becoming more and more handy, and if we can attack like we've been defending, we'll be right.

Next, poor bloody Jimmy who's actually the only supporter of a winning team this week - the Highlanders

Now I'm up about the Hurricanes.

I'm being lazy and linking to this, which says pretty much everything I was gonna write.

http://wotzon.com/diary/JBishop/

Other than to add WE'VE ALWAYS RUN IT FROM OUR OWN HALF.

Partly because we've never had a world-class first-five, partly because IT'S EXCITING!

Examples:

And last - and possibly least - Isaac Ross' fitness consultant.

I've been a bit bloody useless this past fortnight.

Here's the Crusaders' review by Colin Slade's Pimple Popper.

Round... Six?

So, I didn't actually watch this week. I have two reasons for this. One: I was busy and couldn't go to the game. Two: I knew they would win, easily.

From what I have heard the game itself wasn't anything great. Thanks to twitter folk I quickly found out the final score of 46-19. My immediate thought was "Sweet, bonus point and now an even bigger gap between the Crusaders and the Hurricanes!" Let's be honest, that is all I am actually looking forward to.

The Crusaders are currently sitting at 3rd place. Next week we have a bye. And the following week we are playing the Hurricanes which I am really excited about!

As, I won't be writing next week... Good Luck in week 8, Naly_D. You're going to need it!

(If you want at actual review or whatnot google is your friend)

The End.

New Blues writer Boomshanka has weighed in with his second review:

What a difference a week off makes. And playing at home. And the threat of another season in obscurity. And possible legal action hanging over one of your most powerful runners.

Whatever the reason, finally the Blues have stepped up... and against an in form Brumbies side. But judging by how the Aussies were able to push the scoreline to the full 80, Mr. Lam will have a lot to think about for the upcoming weeks.

Poor old Jimmy is continuing to ride this Highlanders bandwagon, dreaming of the day when he can chant 'where were you when we were shit?'

This loss was probably the most disappointing since the Highlanders competed with, but didn't topple the Crusaders. If i'm honest i'll admit that when I heard Tom Donnelly was out & Hayden Triggs was starting I had more than a little trepidation about what may occur.

But Triggs is no excuse, as the boys from down south welcomed back Jimmy, and were playing a team with a more miserable record this year than themselves. For perhaps 60 minutes or so I was confident of victory, but as the last 20 ticked away things just didn't click and the loss become more and more inevitable.

The big negative I saw was that the Highlanders were unable to counter the rolling maul effectively. The rolling maul is one of those things that on paper and on the park goes against pretty much every understanding of how offside and obstruction works, and only infrequently is it stopped by the defending team. More often the team mauling screws up a bit and it splinters and thats what stops it, but the Sharks were too proficient at it this week, so the Highlanders had no answer.

I don't want to dwell to much on the bad, (because the others are consistent with the rest of the season thus far) so here's some positives:

Even with Triggs the Highlanders lineout worked well, stole a lot of ball and was secure in taking its own.

Robbie Robinson might not have given himself a great pass mark, but he looks sharper and more creative than Hobbs, with better distribution, and I suspect a better boot. I think the Highlanders may be better served by developing the players that will be there next year. Unfortunately that means no more Berquist unless someone is injured, but another 6-7 games this year will help to bring out the best in Robinson next year.

Israel Dagg is a reasonable goal kicker! How they figured that I don't know as he doesn't even kick for the Magpies. I'm not sure he's better than Robinson, but perhaps taking the pressure of the younger of the youngsters is a good idea - ala Cruden / Weepu.

The loose trio seem to work well as a group, and for the most part are able to secure fast 2nd & 3rd phase ball, and were able to effect turnovers as well - no mean feat under the new rules.

Lastly, lets talk about Vainikolo. I mean seriously, what the fuck? I'm still not at all sure why he deserved a contract after a less than lack-lustre season with Otago. Shortland was better and it was only his first season playing Air NZ Cup. That non-try celebration was retarded. Dumb because it wasn't a try, but also dumb because, well because it just was.

Onwards and upwards, this week we have a team who've been even more hapless than the Sharks, dare I hope for a victory

And from me, on the Hurricanes, short, sharp, succinct.

We almost beat the Bulls. That's better than we've done since we went to SA. We were conceding less penalties, Tyson Keats is awesome and we out-scored the Bulls try-wise. The rolling maul tactic I agreed with, the Wallabies used to do it, so why'd it get penalised so much? Alipati Leauia was horrible, but eh. We gotta start winning though.

I did see this live, but passed on it for Amberlamps. But due to a distinct lack of noteworthy hits, and this entry's ability to conclusively define the term 'hospital pass', it's in.

No podcast this week. I finally got round to editing the last two, after experiencing the fortnight of hell. Apologies to the five people I disappointed by getting these up late. As always there's more than just Super 14 discussion in them, and I'm wrong a lot.

Can't embed the second one for whatever reason, but you can download it here. It's only Lee and I and we spend a lot of the time berating Stephen Donald's chip kick tactic and crying about the Hurricanes' loss to the Cheetahs.

Two entries over 5 weeks of the S14, both from my Hurricanes. What's going on?

You can see the first nominee here.

Rugby Review is a new series debuting for The Dropkicks. Put simply, it's a way of following a team through the fans eyes. Are Crusaders fans really one-eyed? Have Highlanders fans lost all hope? You'll follow the team through 5 fans. I'm looking for someone to do the

Blues each week, so please leave a comment if you want to do this!

The Chiefs: By long-time friend of The Dropkicks, Richard Irvine

John Mitchell talks you through the Chiefs vs Western Force.

G'day. I'm John Mitchell. You may remember me from 'sitting next to Clive Woodward like a sack of wet sand' and 'I can't believe the All Black coach hasn't been sacked yet!'. That one came out in 2003. So the Chiefs played the Force on Saturday night; I have fond memories of Waikato and the Chiefs - I had hair then - so I want to see them do well. On the other hand, the Force are a pack of whinging little bitches, and I want to see their hearts ripped out, piled on the 22, then set on fire.

Just joking!

Luckily, the Chiefs came to the party and bitchslapped them. Good one. If those Aussies hadn't gone all Lord Of The Flies on me, they'd be the fucking Crusaders by now. I think the lesson in this match is "This is what happens when you fuck Mitch in the arse". For the Chiefs, who are three from three, I think the lesson is "Watch your back" - life plays some fucked up hands, and just when your career is going great, there are ALWAYS people out there wanting to stick a knife in your back. Always. Take it from Mitch, I know.

The Crusaders by Ti'i Paulo's 'special nutritionist' As predicted, it was a good week for the Crusaders. They played the Sharks, at home, on Friday night and I was much more pleased by their performance. The Crusaders had not been defeated by a South African Super Rugby team at home since 1996, and I was glad to see this remain.

The game was light-years better than last week’s game, against the Reds. There wasn’t anything overly spectacular about the game. It was just a good game of rugby. It was such a massive improvement, it was like watching a completely different team!

As I have left this review to the last minute, I’m just going to sum up the Crusaders' ROUND THREE

Richie, AKA God, is back.

Outstanding scrums.

Up at half time: Ten – Six.

Never would've known we lost so badly last week.

Dan Carter overtook Matt Burke on the all-time Super rugby scorer’s list. (Now 3rd)

Thirty five – Six: Final Score.

Hottie, Zac Guildford: Multiple tries. One intercept try.

Runaway ending. Two tries in 10minutes.

Epically annihilating tackles.

Exceptional crowd attendance.

I'm looking forward to much of the same in Round Four.

Hurricanes, by me

King Carlos came to town and he brought the Clever kid. 'Los didn't do a hell of a lot - and got a lot of sledging thrown his way from those in the crowd - and I'm not sure what people expected him to do anyway. Lining up outside it looked like there'd be an amazing crowd - it took us 20m to get in in the first place. But it wasn't. It was an ok crowd, but surely not much more than 16,000.

If you could look up the Hurricanes on unencyclopedia, this would be the match that accompanied it, with this blurb.

The Hurricanes are a team based in Wellington, New Zealand. They play their home games at the Biscuit Tin. The Hurricanes have historically been a team with a lot of promising talent, but often that talent has been squandered in favour of white line fever. This sports team simply refuses to learn the basics, opting instead for flashy, 50/50 ball play [which is more often than not 20/80].

The February 27, 2010 match against the Lions was the personification of this. The Lions were not fancied to win this game, as they have been shown to have a weak defence. The Hurricanes decided to exploit this by trying to set up 60m solo tries, instead of getting the team to work together to get 4 quick tries - securing a bonus point - and then resort to flashy football.

We're off to South Africa for three weeks, minus Conrad and Tamati this week, and the Pig for a season.

Oh, and can I say the Seal Slayer's try against the Lions was amazing and hilarious. Best bit of rugby satire I've ever seen.

The Highlanders, by Jimmy. 

This game is the first one this year that's highlighted what for me is the major deficiency of "Super" rugby. Waking up at 4am on a Sunday is hard. You might wonder why I was waking up at 4am? Well, try as I might I just couldn't find a replay of the game being shown at a reasonable hour on Sunday. There were replays of the Crusaders' game, which you may recall was played at NZ time, and replays of the Blues' game which finished well before midnight. So someone at Sky clearly doesn't think anyone wants to watch the Highlanders play at a normal time of the day.*

The scheduling of the kickoff in the afternoon can't have helped either, it would have made more sense to have a night game in Africa, which I think could have been 6:30am here in New Zealand. These crazy time zone differences are why I got really excited by the idea of changing Super rugby to being more of a Champions League type competition, which would help to limit the amount of time players have to spend miles away from home. That, or just ditching the Africans from the competition and playing with Pacific and Asian teams; though I suppose that would probably kill the presumably big earner of the Tri-Nations.

Anyway, all of that is by the by, because I haven't been asked to deliver a state of the Union, but rather a fan's perspective of Highlanders games, so I should probably crack into it. The Highlanders won!!! I don't think they won pretty, and maybe they were robbed of a bonus point, but bagging 4 points in Africa is a big achievement at any stage; even if the win is agains the Cheetahs who apparantely haven't won back to back since they returned to the comp.

I couldn't believe the investment the Highlanders were making in Hobbs when they have Robbie Robinson in the squad, but the guy has sure proven me wrong. He's put in solid performances in the first 3 rounds, and scored 4 tries to boot. I think the balance of the team with Shoemark at 12 (surely he's more natural there than at centre, what with his good kicking game?) and Lynn at 13 was great. As awesome as Jayden Hayward can be, I think he's a little too inconsistent at this level yet, and having a relative veteran like Shoemark outside Hobbs must surely be a calming influence on him.

However, I also liked the tactic of bringing Berquist on at the end to calm the tempo and keep the Cheetahs pushed back in their own half - that backline trio might be a good starting trio against some of the teams that can control their game better than the Cheetahs. Then you can bring Lynn on for Berquist and push Hobbs in one to up the tempo in the last 30 minutes.

Having praised the win, I did have some questions about the tactics the backs employed a lot of the night. It doesn't seem to me that the new rules make kicking possession away constantly a good idea. While Ben Smith had a great Air NZ Cup campaign last year, that hasn't yet translated into Super 14 form, so putting bombs up constantly basically means only Dagg is going to be able to get up in the air & compete for the ball. Dagg by the way, had a reasonably good game, especially with the added responsibility of having the goal kicking duties.

My only other comment on the backs, is that Jimmy Cowan had, by his standards, an average game. A couple of kicks went awry and he just wasn't his usual sharp and decisive self. Jimmy is awesome, and not just because he shares my name. I think its great how he shook off all of that (admittedly fairly self-inflicted) crap, and has really stood up and made the most of the opportunities he's had. Here's hoping he's back to his best next week, because the Highlanders need him at top form.

The forwards had solid games for the most part - I don't think they were being out-scrummed, but rather that the referee was allowing some fairly iffy tactics from the Cheetahs front row. The loose forwards were solid, and though Thompson looked a bit out of place at times at No 8, I like the additional pace that the trio had. Up against Smith & Broussow I think the really held their own. Its interesting how the effectiveness of Broussow has been nullified by the new rules - last year he might have earnt his team 10 penalties from his efforts at the breakdown, but now with the law being interpreted correctly (ok, differently) he had a quiet game.

Apart that is, from scoring the first of 3 tries to be sent to the TMO, and the one that I thought was the most obviously not a try. The ball hit the ground, but to my eyes at least he had clearly lost control of it prior to that. Smith's try I would have given the benefit of the doubt to, even though you couldn't actually see it hitting the ground - but the 'daylight' between ball and line for Thompson's disallowed try wasn't visible on my telly.

So, robbed of a bonus point, but 4 points in the bag in their first fixture in Africa. The Stormers should be a tougher prospect, but a winnable game - and if the improvements continue week to week the Bulls might be a competitive game. But coming up against a team that's had a nice break with the Bye week, I think im being overly optimistic there! Anyway, this is one pretty chuffed 'almost' fan!

* I'm willing to admit that i'm either blind or stupid and there may have been a replay that I just couldn't find when searching the Sky website. But to be fair, when I entered 'Highlanders' into their search box, only one result showed, and that was for a replay of a game in the future anyway. So, instead of a handy search feature I had to scroll manually through their fugly TV Guide thing, which is slow so I gave up after getting to Tuesday.

This could have been up well before the weekend, but I made an editorial decision to wait for the announcement of the new Hurricanes coach and ended up cutting that section from the podcast.

The first 10m or so are really loud, before it goes quiet for some reason, sorry. The dictaphone didn't even move!