­Much has been written about South Africa's fall from grace in recent weeks.  They have gone from a team that could do no wrong to a team that just can't get it right.  In particular, the South African media is falling over itself about the sudden plummet.  While one can certainly see a big difference between last years Tri-­Nations and this year's, the suggestion that the difference is only the law application is wrong minded.  South Africa is not suddenly suffering a down turn.  Instead, last year was an aberration.  The whinging coming from Africa, both in the form of the media and SARU executives, should stop.  One gets the impression that refereeing decisions are subverting rugby's world order.  South Africa is not being robbed of their rightful place.  They are performing to their usual standard.

A quick look at the history of the Boks will show that in recent times they are less impressive than one might think.  In order to demonstrate the lack of form in recent times, one should look at the Sprinboks since the end of the competition ban, viewing their record in various increments.

Since 1992-The Springboks have won about 63% of their games.  To put that in perspective, in the same period New Zealand have won about 80%, England 65%, France 64%, and Austraila 67%.  In other words, of the five main powerhouses in rugby over the last 20 years, South Africa has underperformed everyone else.  The margin may be small, but the numbers hardly show South Africa in the same stratosphere with New Zealand, miles beyond everyone else.  Some will point to the 1995 World Cup, and that win certainly was impressive.  It also happened 15 years ago.

Last 10 years-The win rate over this period dips slightly, to 62%, basically remaining steady.  The 2003 World Cup was a total failure, with the Boks easily handled by the All Blacks in the Quarterfinals.

Last 5 years-The Boks won 64% in the last five years.  Of course another RWC victory came in this period.  The difficulty of this victory is often overrated.  The '07 Boks are the only team to make a RWC final and not play one team from the Tri-Nations or Six Nations in the knock out stages.  In fact, only three other teams ('87 France, '95 South Africa, '99 France) ever made the final playing a tier two nation or Argentina in the knock out stages.  South Africa were not truly tested until the Final, beating up on the USA, Samoa, Tonga, and a hapless England side in the pool stage.  The Boks won the '07 RWC fair and square, but they had the easiest path to the title of any RWC champion.

Last 2 years-During the '08 Tri-Nations South Africa finally won in New Zealand.  They then lost to Australia in Perth, got shut out at home by the All Blacks, and let Australia win its first road Tri-Nations game in seven years.  That fall they came perilously close to losing to both Wales and Scotland.  The '09 Lions (whose quality one could question based on the abysmal form of Northern Hemisphere teams in recent years) would have drawn their series with South Africa if Ronan O'Gara didn't suffer from the same malady as Dorthy's friend the Scarecrow.  The '09 Tri-Nations was an obvious high for the Boks.  It was followed by a disastrous tour where South Africa lost to Ireland, France, Saracens, and Leicester.  This June, France and Italy were weak opposition, and South Africa has been incapable of winning in the Tri-Nations.  In 2007-2010, South Africa is still only 70% in tests.

Are South Africa the second best team in world rugby, more often than not?  Yes.  The idea that they are a team on par with New Zealand, however, is ridiculous.  When one only counts success in World Cups, then yes South Africa has the edge.  This "golden age" of Springbok rugby is, in fact, only two good runs during the '07 RWC and summer of '09.  Since the end of the competition ban, South Africa has consistently been a team that loses every third game.  Their performance this year is below average for them, but not by much.  In their last 20 tests they have won 12, 60%.  We shouldn't expect much else.

The building up of the Boks seems to be more about New Zealand then about South Africa.  In the Henry era the All Blacks have won a whopping 86% of the time.  The most likely team to topple such a juggernaut will obviously get the media hype.  When the Boks are playing like the Boks and the All Blacks play like the All Blacks, the whining and shock should not happen.  The results lately are par for the course in the world of international rugby.  According to the numbers, South Africa in the last 20 years are nothing more than one other team struggling to match the standards of the men in black.

In 2009 we got used to seeing a Springboks side that seemed almost unstoppable. They could retain possession until they decided to kick it down your throat and force you to make a mistake. They had a tight 5 that could hold up - or collapse - any scrum they wanted to, flankers that could bully you at the ruck if you were behind the 8 ball and a halfback-first 5 combo that worked effectively to distribute the ball and kick for territory. Arguably their weak links were in the midfield and at fullback.

In contrast the Wallabies side of 2009 was a little bit disjointed. A forward pack which could work together if it had to, too many cooks in the kitchen at halfback and first/second five, but from there on out it was all positives. Personally I think James O'Connor at fullback was their weak link - they worked better with Adam Ashley-Cooper at the back - but the whole team had a disjointed feel to it with occasional flashes of brilliance bringing it all together. Like the Waratahs, Hurricanes or Chiefs.

One year has been enough to change those perceptions.

Make no mistake, the Springboks were outplayed in tonight's match. In the first half they did well to keep up - and throughout the whole game they outplayed the Wallabies at the ruck and the scrum. But as the game wore on it became increasingly obvious this was a South African team without a game plan. Last year everything seemed so structured, so clinical, so formulaic. Tonight every ruck was different. Clearing kicks were made without chasers - in one case Danie Roussow was the only Springbok sprinting after the ball - forwards were caught in midfield, backs were made to pick-and-go from 60m out... The only two players who seemed to have any idea what they were doing were Ruan Pienaar, Morne Steyn and Jacque Fourie, barring his yellow card.

It's already become a Tri Nations campaign of desperation for the South Africans. Schalk Burger will most likely lose a couple of weeks to ruminate on his discipline after getting caught on camera doing something dodgy to Pocock's eye socket in one of their many scuffles. Their carbon credit bill will be enormous with the cost of replacing all these players getting bans.

There's also the issue of the particularly dodgy but seemingly legal tactic bokke was using when chasing kicks, where the chaser would go up with arms and legs akimbo clearly not pursuing the ball but aiming to put off the opposition.

I'm beginning to ask some serious questions of the Boks' plans for this season and why after four games have they still failed to correctly deploy their wingers and fullback on attack. The ball either gets to Fourie too late to pass it, or he holds it, breaks the line and there's no runners there in support.

The Wallabies side wasn't perfect either. They played like the All Blacks last week but in reverse. They started off not looking too flash but ended strongly after getting a bit of confidence.

One thing they definitely need to focus on over the next week is their scrum. The flankers were slipping and sliding and the front rowers were getting pounded almost every time, which led them to resort to some pretty obvious flouting of the laws in an effort to just keep the thing up long enough that they wouldn't be penalised.

There's also the issue of James O'Connor. I've not been a fan of him at fullback and his problems were exacerbated on the wing. I believe he was very lucky that Habana didn't get a chance to run at him with the ball in hand because his defence is poor and his ability under the high ball is limited. Yet when you watch him at a Super 14 level it's like chalk and cheese. Dingo Deans needs to find a way to get that confidence and ability to show on the field.

Personally I'd support giving Kurtley Beale the start at fullback against the blackness and putting Adam Ashley-Cooper on the wing, because O'Connor's struggles against the Boks tonight will be nothing compared to facing a resurgent Mils Muliaina in New Zealand in two weeks - or even in Australia next weekend.

A hat-tip has to go to Pocock and Rocky Elsom for their work around the field tonight. They put the bokke loosies back in their cage in emphatic style and it looks like the Australians have finally realised that when you're first to the ruck you can get away with a lot of rule-bending. All in all it will be interesting to see how Australia's "give it some air, show the crowd some flair" tactics shape up against New Zealand's "let's give it to Dan/Ma'a and see what he does". Ah, who am I kidding. We'll pump the criminals.

Final score:
Australia 31 - South Africa 13.
Australia: Tries to Drew Mitchell and Will Genia. Matt Giteau 5 penalties, James O'Connor 1 penalty, 1 conversion.
South Africa: Tries to Jacque Fourie and Guthro Steenkamp. Morne Steyn 1 penalty.

Sport is always about bringing performances week in and week out. For the two teams involved in the second Tri Nations game tonight, South Africa and New Zealand, one kept the same level as last week and another stepped up marginally.

South Africa were totally outplayed last week. This week they performed at a good standard at points in this game - 10 min after half-time, a few patches in the second half - which may be enough to get them over Australia, but not this current All Blacks side.

The story for NZ was the opposite. For the majority of the game we played an outstanding, exciting kind of rugby, but something which has cropped up over the 5 tests we've had this season is that there's been a consistent teething period of 5 - 10 minutes when the bench has rolled on where everything turns a little Yakety Sax.

Passes that are more like 20/80 than 50/50 get thrown, forwards get left to chase down stab-through kicks and players are caught out of position on returns. It's a lucky thing that the All Blacks' coaches have such emphasis on defence or this period of games could have proven costly at this point in the season.

On the whole though, this team is peaking. It's still early in the campaign and I'm reluctant to say it until we play Australia but I really don't see them offering anything in the way of a challenge, so I'll throw it out there.

This is a 2005 standard All Blacks unit. We pantsed the Lions that year and aside from South Africa nobody even looked like touching us. This season it appears that it'll be the same story, except not even SA is near us. Yes, you can feel free to come back here and point out how I was wrong if we lose one.

It's a tough thing to go undefeated - in fact, we haven't done it since 1997 when we won 11 and drew with England - but this is an All Blacks side which isn't demolishing teams in a dominant fashion, it's subtly and slowly piling on pressure and leaving other sides to play catchup.

In terms of tonight's performances, there are a couple of standouts and a couple who deserve a bit of a seeing to. First up is Dan Carter. Much is always made of his 'form slumps' and how he has purple patches but this is a two-way street. He was given a lot of space and time last week as the Boks appeared to focus on Cowan and Nonu, whereas this week he was almost completely nullifed. Even when he managed to get a kick off it was pretty touch-and-go. His goalkicking wasn't up to par but it's something commented on every time he plays in Wellington.

Next was Rene Ranger. He's had to slot in to a semi-established combo, but I'm left to wonder why Zac Guilford didn't get the call up. Ranger's a good player, but he's one of those young Carlos Spencer hit-or-miss players, even on defence. Whenever he has the ball in his hands he's looking to spark something - usually for himself - and when he's tackling he goes in 100% and either knocks someone for 6 or gets beaten. I just think somebody needs to sit him down and remind him he's in a team of outstanding players, not the Blues or Northland.

In terms or praises, I'm gonna wax lyrical about the loose forwards. We've finally got a trio to replace the effectiveness of the So'oialo/Collins/Masoe relationship. One of the massive benefits of musketeers McCaw/Read/Kaino is that all of them can play for 80 minutes, and all of them can play at each position. In a discussion during tonight's game the question 'who is the best player in international rugby at the moment' came up - the usual suspects, McCaw, Bryan Habana, Dan Carter were thrown up but I think Kieran Read is getting near that mix. He's everywhere on defence, he clears the ruck and fetches, he can link with backs and how many times have we seen him throw that last offload 5m from the line to a back to storm over? Mainstream pundits, you can go on and on about Pierre Spies but this year Read is better. And that's coming from a reformed Read hater.

I didn't want to write anything throughout the week in case I jinxed the team again, but here's a bit of a milestone that was missed by those in the media. Remember all those weeks ago when I wrote that the last time the All Blacks didn't score a try was in 2004? [Here it is if you missed it] Well tonight's game was the 75th consecutive game that the ABs have managed to cross the white line.

So from here we turn the evil eye of Mordor to Brisbane for next week's tussle between the under-performing Boks and the baby Wallabies. Can either side step up and offer something that will put a stick in the front wheel of the Kawasaki that is the 2010 All Blacks?

Final score: All Blacks 31, South Africa 17.

All Blacks;
Tries to Ma'a Nonu, Mils Muliana, Rene Ranger, Israel Dagg. Dan Carter 2 penalties, 1 conversion, Piri Weepu 1 penalty.

South Africa;
Tries to Danie Rossouw and Schalk Burger.
Morne Steyn 1 penalty, 2 conversions.

 So the South Africans came to Eden Park to try and overturn a legacy of unbeaten All Black sides and continue their Tri Nations form from last season, but the Blacks stood up and said 'like fuck!'

In the heart of latte country and in front of a capacity* crowd, the New Zealanders were the superlative side and picked apart a bokke carcass that struggled to provide any real answers.

It looked tight for the first quarter with both sides mounting some promising attack and meeting stoic defense and each walking away with 3 points, though the All Blacks' gained a one man advantage when Bakkies Botha was sent off.

Bakkies will probably be seeing the judiciary in the next couple of days after being caught on camera tackling Jimmy Cowan and headbutting him from behind. Bakkies was mistaken if he thought this would affect Jimmy's gameplaying ability, as the Southern man is used to a sore head from years of drinking sessions - if anything it brought back the 2007 era Jimmy, a man unafraid to run straight at the biggest man on the field.

The only concern I'd like to raise is with regard to the tactical kicking. There wasn't much and when it was attempted it wasn't pretty. The ABs have gained Mils Muliana back from injury, but it's worth throwing up for discussion that Israel Dagg's tactical abilities, at the moment at least, appear to have the edge.

The return from injury of Mils and Ma'a Nonu was superb with both players performing as though they'd been in the team and getting minutes for the entire Steinlager Series. Mils' first touch of the ball made people in pubs up and down the country throw their hands in the air as he went up to field a kick and landed awkwardly, coughing up the pill. From then on he atoned for his sins, setting Dan Carter, Cory Jane and Joe Rokocoko alight as he split through the South African defense on the counter-attack like the Russian forces against Napolean.

Ma'a had a standout game as far as I'm concerned, working the draw-and-pass with great effect and putting up a few kicks [?!] which wouldn't have been the preferred option but were very successful. And one which wasn't.

Piri Weepu came off the bench with 25m left and once again showed why he's an explosive bench player - he comes off and injects a sense of pace in the backline, getting to the ruck and spreading the ball faster than the tired opposition defense can react.

In terms of set piece, both the lineout and scrum have progressed since last season. The All Black scrum, in my opinion, hasn't been a concern since 2008 - since then we've managed to hold our own. But how fantastic was it to not only see them hold their own, but the green-booted South African loosies backpedalling and slipping as the All Black pack put the heat on in several scrums.

Every team's lineout should be judged against the South African side as long as Victor Matfield is on the field and I'd say ours is at the same level, which it arguably hasn't been since 2006 when the Ali Williams/Matfield rivalry was at its fiercest. Keven Mealamu, Brad Thorn and Tom Donnelly were in sync throughout the whole game and once the Springboks sent on their bench their lineout fell to pieces.

The most noteable thing to walk away with though is penalties. This is what lost us the games against the republic last season. Morne Steyn can kick almost anything within a range of 50m of the posts so it was fantastic to see him only get a few chances and have to look for two drop goals - once as a last resort and once on an offensive drive that would have left a few South African players unimpressed with his decision. That's something to be applauded.

Final score: All Blacks 32, South Africa 12.

All Blacks;
Tries to Conrad Smith [16th international try], Ma'a Nonu [15th international try], Kieran Read [2nd international try], Tony Woodcock [6th international try]. Dan Carter 2 penalties, 3 conversions.

South Africa;
Morne Steyn 4 penalties.

As long term readers will be aware, last year I wrote a post about the declining number of tries being scored in international rugby. I think I went deep enough into the trend there and my reasoning behind it, but today I got to thinking:

What about specific teams?

Everyone knows 'oh we last beat those guys in xxxx' but what about tries? The Welsh test on the weekend made me wonder, because we didn't concede a try on that tour of course and 2008 was a great NH trip too.

The answer? November 19, 2006. And that was dotted down by a flanker. That's one hell of a drought, no wonder they had a winger taking a penalty on Saturday; he just wanted to be able to say he scored against the mighty All Blacks!

This dubious record is only exceeded by Scotland, who haven't scored against us since 2005. There's obviously a large discrepancy in the stats though - for example we've only played the Scots twice since 2005 but we've had four matches against Wales in the same period - but it's still an interesting stat-line to look at and may be helpful in seeing where some teams are going wrong later in the year. So here're the stats for 3N teams v 6N;

New Zealand:

v England - Last try was 21 June 2008 in Christchurch. They lost that match 44-12 and scored two tries to the All Blacks' 5. The two sides have met twice since.

v France - Last try was on June 20, 2009 in Wellington. They lost that match 14-10, with both sides scoring one try each - to Ma'a Nonu and Cedric Heymans respectively - but France ultimately lost due to NZ slotting 3 penalties. The two sides have met once since, in Marseille, where the All Blacks romped to a 39-12 victory.

v Italy - Last try was on 08 September 2007 in Marseille. The two sides met in pool play at the Rugby World Cup with Italy being throughly outplayed in the All Blacks' 76-14 win. The two sides have met twice since, both in 2009.

v Ireland - Last try was 12 June 2010 in New Plymouth. A match which will probably be remembered more for Ireland's lack of discipline than the dominant performance put forward by the All Blacks, Ireland went down 66-28. This is the most recent time the two sides have played.

v Scotland - Last try was 26 Nov 2005. The All Blacks would emerge on top 29-10 scoring four tries to Scotland's one. The two sides have met twice since, but not since Nov 2008.

v Wales - Last try was almost a year after Scotland to the day, 25 Nov 2006. The All Blacks won that game 45-10. The two sides have played each other three times since at the time of writing, with a fourth match to be held this weekend.

In looking into these I also checked out the All Blacks try-scoring stats. Incredibly, the last time we didn't score a try in an international was 07 Aug 2004 against Australia who beat us 23-18 - their sole try making all the difference. That's a 61-match streak the All Blacks sit on where they have scored a try in which they have lost 11 matches - seven to South Africa and two each to France and Australia. That's insane!

Conversely, the last time Australia were held tryless was last year at the 3N match at the Caketin which the All Blacks won 33-6 [you know, the one against the All Blacks that James O'Connor looked real out of his depth in. What do you mean that doesn't narrow it down?] Their record against the 6N is as follows:

Australia:

v England - Last scored a try on June 19 2010. The English won this match 21-20 in Sydney, their first win over Australia since the 2007 Rugby World Cup quarterfinal. This is the most recent time the two sides have played.

v France - France last crossed the chalkline on 22 Nov 2008. They lost that match 18-13. They have met once since, in 2009.

v Italy - Last try was June 13 2009. Australia won that game 31-8. The two sides have met once since, a week later.

v Ireland - Last scored 15 Nov 2009. That match ended in a 20 all draw. As much as the All Blacks appear to have the wood on Ireland, they seem to be Australia's bogey team. Since the last time Australia held Ireland tryless - 09 Nov 2002 - they've met seven times with the shamrock men always able to get across no matter what the score difference is. This is the most recent time the two sides have played.

v Scotland - 25 Nov 2006 is actually a bad day for both the Welsh and Scottish, as it's the last time the Scottish scored a try against Australia. They played last year - 21 Nov 2009 - and won 9-8 despite being held tryless. Last year's match was the only one which has been contested between the two sides since 2006.

v Wales - Last try scored on Nov 29 2008. Wales won that match 21-18, equalling Australia's two tries and getting an extra penalty. The teams have met once since, on Nov 28 2009.

The mighty imperial empire of South Africa is actually, on paper, a bit odd. For example, they're the 3N team most recently held tryless as they failed to take a five pointer against the Wallabies on September 05 2009.

South Africa:

v England - England last scored a try against the bokke in the leadup to the 2007 World Cup on June 02. The Boks seemed to learn from that match which they won 55-22 anyway, holding the English tryless in both pool play and the final at the RWC. The two sides have met three times since the last time England scored a try.

v France - Les Blues managed to get across the line twice on 12 Jun 2010, despite being thoroughly pantsed by the Saffers. This is the most recent time the two sides have played.

v Italy - Italy followed France and played SA this past weekend, managing to score one try. This is the most recent time the two sides have played.

v Ireland - Last scored a try on 28 Nov 2009. Like Australia v Scotland, SA have only played Ireland once since 2006. Almost unbelievably, Ireland have won their last three games against SA - in 2009, 2006 and 2004. This is the most recent time the two sides have played.

v Scotland - Last scored 15 Nov 2008 in their 14-10 loss to SA. This is the most recent time the two sides have played.

v Wales - Last scored on 05 Jun 2010. This math was even on the try ledger with both sides scoring three tries. SA ultimately grabbed the W with the final score being 34-31.

So while logistically we can't take much from these stats there are some interesting stats - for example South Africa appears unable to hold teams out from their tryline, but end up winning through a superior penalty count. The All Blacks have bucked the SH trend against Ireland and Australia seems to be like South Africa in struggling to maintain a stoic defense.

So what I posit is that we are too harsh on the All Blacks' defense at times. While it is relatively common to concede a match at 3N level, can't we put it in the perspective that we are playing Australia and South Africa more frequently than the 6N teams so of course we will figure out each other's differences.

In other words, we have a wall of blackness to celebrate, not lambast.

Before the Cricket kicked off [tipped off? Bowled off? Hit off?] this week, the fellows over at Sportsfreak were focused on the All Blacks' end of year tour, and the lack of tries in their games. The print media also seem to have chosen this as their lead angle ahead of this weekend's match (exhibit a, b, c, d... need I go on?) against France.

You can see my original response over there, where I gave some stats about the tries the All Blacks have scored and conceded in the NH over the past 11 years, but it sparked something in me. At school, I didn't really pay much attention in Maths. If it was something that captured my attention (like graphs and shit) I'd do it, but as soon as I got to sixth form I dropped it. It's never been a problem in day to day life, but this week I've felt completely incompetent. I've been trying to come up with all kinds of mathmatical stats and graphs for this post, and I'm extremely lucky to have Hadyn's patient tutelage to help me. If it hadn't been for him, you'd have all kinds of data here, and it would be presented on an unreadable line graph.

Something I didn't need help for was gathering the data for this. And it's actually a new feature of the Dropkicks. You can see it here. Currently it features all international test matches from 2006-today, but I may backdate it eventually if I see the need, and I may use it for a post about the Rugby World Cup and whether the 'minnow' teams are becoming more competitive.

The first table to have a look at, because I know you want to see the stuff revolving around the All Blacks, is the 6 Nations. [if this was TV that would be a hook - You would have no choice but to stick with me to find out. But this is a blog, so it doesn't work as well... Fuck.]

Warning: This post is a not-to-subtle call to attention directed at Robbie Deans. Yesterday I tweeted this:

Can anyone guess what these numbers mean? 76, .842 24, .708 27, .519

Graham Henry has been the coach of the All Blacks for 76 matches and has a .842 win percentage. Peter de Viliers, the coach of the Springboks who copped a fair bashing last year, has been in charge for 24 matches and has a .708 win record. I think you know who the third coach is: Robbie Deans. 27 games, .519 win record. He's only just won more than half the internationals he's been the boss for.