Bam!

Thanks Rugby Dump.

In 2009 we got used to seeing a Springboks side that seemed almost unstoppable. They could retain possession until they decided to kick it down your throat and force you to make a mistake. They had a tight 5 that could hold up - or collapse - any scrum they wanted to, flankers that could bully you at the ruck if you were behind the 8 ball and a halfback-first 5 combo that worked effectively to distribute the ball and kick for territory. Arguably their weak links were in the midfield and at fullback.

In contrast the Wallabies side of 2009 was a little bit disjointed. A forward pack which could work together if it had to, too many cooks in the kitchen at halfback and first/second five, but from there on out it was all positives. Personally I think James O'Connor at fullback was their weak link - they worked better with Adam Ashley-Cooper at the back - but the whole team had a disjointed feel to it with occasional flashes of brilliance bringing it all together. Like the Waratahs, Hurricanes or Chiefs.

One year has been enough to change those perceptions.

Make no mistake, the Springboks were outplayed in tonight's match. In the first half they did well to keep up - and throughout the whole game they outplayed the Wallabies at the ruck and the scrum. But as the game wore on it became increasingly obvious this was a South African team without a game plan. Last year everything seemed so structured, so clinical, so formulaic. Tonight every ruck was different. Clearing kicks were made without chasers - in one case Danie Roussow was the only Springbok sprinting after the ball - forwards were caught in midfield, backs were made to pick-and-go from 60m out... The only two players who seemed to have any idea what they were doing were Ruan Pienaar, Morne Steyn and Jacque Fourie, barring his yellow card.

It's already become a Tri Nations campaign of desperation for the South Africans. Schalk Burger will most likely lose a couple of weeks to ruminate on his discipline after getting caught on camera doing something dodgy to Pocock's eye socket in one of their many scuffles. Their carbon credit bill will be enormous with the cost of replacing all these players getting bans.

There's also the issue of the particularly dodgy but seemingly legal tactic bokke was using when chasing kicks, where the chaser would go up with arms and legs akimbo clearly not pursuing the ball but aiming to put off the opposition.

I'm beginning to ask some serious questions of the Boks' plans for this season and why after four games have they still failed to correctly deploy their wingers and fullback on attack. The ball either gets to Fourie too late to pass it, or he holds it, breaks the line and there's no runners there in support.

The Wallabies side wasn't perfect either. They played like the All Blacks last week but in reverse. They started off not looking too flash but ended strongly after getting a bit of confidence.

One thing they definitely need to focus on over the next week is their scrum. The flankers were slipping and sliding and the front rowers were getting pounded almost every time, which led them to resort to some pretty obvious flouting of the laws in an effort to just keep the thing up long enough that they wouldn't be penalised.

There's also the issue of James O'Connor. I've not been a fan of him at fullback and his problems were exacerbated on the wing. I believe he was very lucky that Habana didn't get a chance to run at him with the ball in hand because his defence is poor and his ability under the high ball is limited. Yet when you watch him at a Super 14 level it's like chalk and cheese. Dingo Deans needs to find a way to get that confidence and ability to show on the field.

Personally I'd support giving Kurtley Beale the start at fullback against the blackness and putting Adam Ashley-Cooper on the wing, because O'Connor's struggles against the Boks tonight will be nothing compared to facing a resurgent Mils Muliaina in New Zealand in two weeks - or even in Australia next weekend.

A hat-tip has to go to Pocock and Rocky Elsom for their work around the field tonight. They put the bokke loosies back in their cage in emphatic style and it looks like the Australians have finally realised that when you're first to the ruck you can get away with a lot of rule-bending. All in all it will be interesting to see how Australia's "give it some air, show the crowd some flair" tactics shape up against New Zealand's "let's give it to Dan/Ma'a and see what he does". Ah, who am I kidding. We'll pump the criminals.

Final score:
Australia 31 - South Africa 13.
Australia: Tries to Drew Mitchell and Will Genia. Matt Giteau 5 penalties, James O'Connor 1 penalty, 1 conversion.
South Africa: Tries to Jacque Fourie and Guthro Steenkamp. Morne Steyn 1 penalty.

As long term readers will be aware, last year I wrote a post about the declining number of tries being scored in international rugby. I think I went deep enough into the trend there and my reasoning behind it, but today I got to thinking:

What about specific teams?

Everyone knows 'oh we last beat those guys in xxxx' but what about tries? The Welsh test on the weekend made me wonder, because we didn't concede a try on that tour of course and 2008 was a great NH trip too.

The answer? November 19, 2006. And that was dotted down by a flanker. That's one hell of a drought, no wonder they had a winger taking a penalty on Saturday; he just wanted to be able to say he scored against the mighty All Blacks!

This dubious record is only exceeded by Scotland, who haven't scored against us since 2005. There's obviously a large discrepancy in the stats though - for example we've only played the Scots twice since 2005 but we've had four matches against Wales in the same period - but it's still an interesting stat-line to look at and may be helpful in seeing where some teams are going wrong later in the year. So here're the stats for 3N teams v 6N;

New Zealand:

v England - Last try was 21 June 2008 in Christchurch. They lost that match 44-12 and scored two tries to the All Blacks' 5. The two sides have met twice since.

v France - Last try was on June 20, 2009 in Wellington. They lost that match 14-10, with both sides scoring one try each - to Ma'a Nonu and Cedric Heymans respectively - but France ultimately lost due to NZ slotting 3 penalties. The two sides have met once since, in Marseille, where the All Blacks romped to a 39-12 victory.

v Italy - Last try was on 08 September 2007 in Marseille. The two sides met in pool play at the Rugby World Cup with Italy being throughly outplayed in the All Blacks' 76-14 win. The two sides have met twice since, both in 2009.

v Ireland - Last try was 12 June 2010 in New Plymouth. A match which will probably be remembered more for Ireland's lack of discipline than the dominant performance put forward by the All Blacks, Ireland went down 66-28. This is the most recent time the two sides have played.

v Scotland - Last try was 26 Nov 2005. The All Blacks would emerge on top 29-10 scoring four tries to Scotland's one. The two sides have met twice since, but not since Nov 2008.

v Wales - Last try was almost a year after Scotland to the day, 25 Nov 2006. The All Blacks won that game 45-10. The two sides have played each other three times since at the time of writing, with a fourth match to be held this weekend.

In looking into these I also checked out the All Blacks try-scoring stats. Incredibly, the last time we didn't score a try in an international was 07 Aug 2004 against Australia who beat us 23-18 - their sole try making all the difference. That's a 61-match streak the All Blacks sit on where they have scored a try in which they have lost 11 matches - seven to South Africa and two each to France and Australia. That's insane!

Conversely, the last time Australia were held tryless was last year at the 3N match at the Caketin which the All Blacks won 33-6 [you know, the one against the All Blacks that James O'Connor looked real out of his depth in. What do you mean that doesn't narrow it down?] Their record against the 6N is as follows:

Australia:

v England - Last scored a try on June 19 2010. The English won this match 21-20 in Sydney, their first win over Australia since the 2007 Rugby World Cup quarterfinal. This is the most recent time the two sides have played.

v France - France last crossed the chalkline on 22 Nov 2008. They lost that match 18-13. They have met once since, in 2009.

v Italy - Last try was June 13 2009. Australia won that game 31-8. The two sides have met once since, a week later.

v Ireland - Last scored 15 Nov 2009. That match ended in a 20 all draw. As much as the All Blacks appear to have the wood on Ireland, they seem to be Australia's bogey team. Since the last time Australia held Ireland tryless - 09 Nov 2002 - they've met seven times with the shamrock men always able to get across no matter what the score difference is. This is the most recent time the two sides have played.

v Scotland - 25 Nov 2006 is actually a bad day for both the Welsh and Scottish, as it's the last time the Scottish scored a try against Australia. They played last year - 21 Nov 2009 - and won 9-8 despite being held tryless. Last year's match was the only one which has been contested between the two sides since 2006.

v Wales - Last try scored on Nov 29 2008. Wales won that match 21-18, equalling Australia's two tries and getting an extra penalty. The teams have met once since, on Nov 28 2009.

The mighty imperial empire of South Africa is actually, on paper, a bit odd. For example, they're the 3N team most recently held tryless as they failed to take a five pointer against the Wallabies on September 05 2009.

South Africa:

v England - England last scored a try against the bokke in the leadup to the 2007 World Cup on June 02. The Boks seemed to learn from that match which they won 55-22 anyway, holding the English tryless in both pool play and the final at the RWC. The two sides have met three times since the last time England scored a try.

v France - Les Blues managed to get across the line twice on 12 Jun 2010, despite being thoroughly pantsed by the Saffers. This is the most recent time the two sides have played.

v Italy - Italy followed France and played SA this past weekend, managing to score one try. This is the most recent time the two sides have played.

v Ireland - Last scored a try on 28 Nov 2009. Like Australia v Scotland, SA have only played Ireland once since 2006. Almost unbelievably, Ireland have won their last three games against SA - in 2009, 2006 and 2004. This is the most recent time the two sides have played.

v Scotland - Last scored 15 Nov 2008 in their 14-10 loss to SA. This is the most recent time the two sides have played.

v Wales - Last scored on 05 Jun 2010. This math was even on the try ledger with both sides scoring three tries. SA ultimately grabbed the W with the final score being 34-31.

So while logistically we can't take much from these stats there are some interesting stats - for example South Africa appears unable to hold teams out from their tryline, but end up winning through a superior penalty count. The All Blacks have bucked the SH trend against Ireland and Australia seems to be like South Africa in struggling to maintain a stoic defense.

So what I posit is that we are too harsh on the All Blacks' defense at times. While it is relatively common to concede a match at 3N level, can't we put it in the perspective that we are playing Australia and South Africa more frequently than the 6N teams so of course we will figure out each other's differences.

In other words, we have a wall of blackness to celebrate, not lambast.

The distance between our two countries may physically only be 2,200km but Shaun Tait, Brendon McCullum and Martin Guptill showed that there's a bigger gap when it comes to celebrating good work.

Righto, like it or lump it rugby season is again just around the corner. Which means that the Tri-Nations and Bledisloe Cup games are also on their way. So this year, the year before the World Cup, lets get fucking fired up.

There are some corners of the rugby community which seem to find it acceptable to root for Australia - or that's what talkback would lead you to believe. There are others who, when the All Blacks lose, want to get Deans back over.

Unacceptable.

He works for the enemy. Would your grandfather, you know, the guy who constantly says

rugby is for faggots and pussies now they've gotten rid of rucking and you can't tackle 'round the neck... And did you see they're wearing fucking makeup now?

accept this? No fucking way. When Sir Brian Lochore lost to Alan Jones do you think gramps would've accepted that loss to a worthy opposition? Or would he have jumped on Lochore saying that he selected the worst All Black team ever, and he lacks vision? Fuck no. He'd have been baying for Green and Gold blood. So lets get that back.

Deans isn't a New Zealander now. He knows the words to their anthem. He doesn't sing the 'Waltzing Matilda, who bloody killed her, lying on the grass with a dagger up her arse' version.

He was a Cavalier. He didn't give a shit about South Africa. And he doesn't like heartland rugby - you better believe it. It's a good thing he's gone, or you bet your ass the ANZC would just be Auckland, Wellington and Canterbury. Here's proof.

Counties-Manukau had a chance to win the Ranfurly Shield from the evil vice-grip of the Canterbury juggernaut. They were ahead, 15-12. Deans just had to nail this impossible shot to level the scores and give the CM Steelers a 'what up'.

So lets get some intensity to this rivalry before the World Cup shall we?

I use the term paradise loosely here, because I'm talking about Australia. But if you've been in Wellington the past couple of days, with our weather, you'd know that paradise certainly isn't here...

But I digress. Here's a story the sport media should be all fucking over - especially at this time of the year when there's nothing on except a meaningless test match that's already been decided, a yachting race that nobody except the media and yachties care about, and the buildup to NZ's premiere Tennis event.

The Australian Associated Press and Daily Telegraph have let fly a story suggesting that the financial backers of Melbourne's Super Rugby franchise have, in true blue fair dinkum Aussie style, spat the dummy.

If you remember the press release from SANZAR when the decision was announced [it was very brief] you should remember that the arbitration board of David Kirk and the Hon Barry Paterson QC noted that the South African bid for the Southern Kings franchise

was more advanced with regard to business and financial planning and organization structure and governance. The Southern Kings were also able to point to a strong rugby tradition, a large playing base and presented a stronger case than Melbourne as to their rugby readiness.

So why did they decide to go with Melbourne? Oh yeah.

These strengths of the Southern King’s Application did not, however, offset the benefits in geographical location and commercial value to SANZAR (both of which criteria the Experts were asked to place considerable weight on) that the Melbourne Application was able to deliver.

I had my concerns when I first read that, but I gave it a go. After all, this is the first time we've seen a privately-owned franchise in Super Rugby and we've seen what private backing can achieve in the past [remember the events that got Matt Giteau to the Western Force?]. But now it looks like the whole thing's starting to unravel.

The catalyst for the departure of some backers is put down to the Australian Rugby Union's opposition to subsidise the franchise and rightly so. It was always billed as a private union, so why should it be given a subsidy - aside from ensuring there are sufficient players available? Why would the ARU, as a business entity, invest money into a team which is not guaranteed of a fan base as it is to operate in a city which is the absolute heart of AFL and already has a very, very successful rugby league team? I mean, the Force in Perth are part of a more equal market and get an average following, but take a team to Melbourne would be like putting a football team in Wellington. And we know how many fans that lot have.

I reckon this is just political posturing from the Melbourne backers, but I hope the ARU stands firm. But if this deal really is on the rocks, what happens?

If the Melbourne Whateverthey'regonnabecalleds don't show sufficient progress [like, coming up with a team name, or a coach, or players] by a specific date, what happens? Do we stay with the Super 14? Do the Southern Kings get to rush around for six months [or however long] trying to re-establish their union? Or does SANZAR just bail out the team and get it going?

Because we've seen one SANZAR union grabbed by its balls and made to do as it's told, and not as it wants, this year - so someone's gotta stand up and flip the bird at these mucky little manipulators before it's too late.

Update: So it looks like the beatup came from the dick from the Melbourne bid. But then again, the ARU doesn't have the most respectable track record.

Before the Cricket kicked off [tipped off? Bowled off? Hit off?] this week, the fellows over at Sportsfreak were focused on the All Blacks' end of year tour, and the lack of tries in their games. The print media also seem to have chosen this as their lead angle ahead of this weekend's match (exhibit a, b, c, d... need I go on?) against France.

You can see my original response over there, where I gave some stats about the tries the All Blacks have scored and conceded in the NH over the past 11 years, but it sparked something in me. At school, I didn't really pay much attention in Maths. If it was something that captured my attention (like graphs and shit) I'd do it, but as soon as I got to sixth form I dropped it. It's never been a problem in day to day life, but this week I've felt completely incompetent. I've been trying to come up with all kinds of mathmatical stats and graphs for this post, and I'm extremely lucky to have Hadyn's patient tutelage to help me. If it hadn't been for him, you'd have all kinds of data here, and it would be presented on an unreadable line graph.

Something I didn't need help for was gathering the data for this. And it's actually a new feature of the Dropkicks. You can see it here. Currently it features all international test matches from 2006-today, but I may backdate it eventually if I see the need, and I may use it for a post about the Rugby World Cup and whether the 'minnow' teams are becoming more competitive.

The first table to have a look at, because I know you want to see the stuff revolving around the All Blacks, is the 6 Nations. [if this was TV that would be a hook - You would have no choice but to stick with me to find out. But this is a blog, so it doesn't work as well... Fuck.]

This is a little complicated, but is more proof of the sort of shenanigans some of the big unions think ­they can get away with.

The original IRB schedule for this November did not include an Australia Grand Slam tour.  The Wallabies had the three Celtic nations on tap, and England were to play Argentina, New Zealand, and Fiji.  

The Aussies obviously wanted to add an England test.  England did not choose to add a fourth test.  I assume this was an issue of the club commitments, or at least the RFU's unwillingness to pay the clubs for an extra week of internationals.  So, the Aussies and RFU created a master plan to fix the problem.

England replaced their Fiji test with the more lucrative Grand Slam opener.  In order to placate Fiji for the lost game, the RFU would kick back a portion of the profits to Fiji, would set up a test against the USA in its place, and Australia agreed to play a June test against Fiji.  The deal gave Australia a Grand Slam chance, England more money, Fiji more tests and money, and USA another test.

In the last few weeks the Fiji/USA test has been canceled.  Since the cancellation, Fiji has scrambled to get a game with Romania.  What happened?  According to Nigel Melville, as reported by American Rugby News, the RFU backed out of obligations.  They said they would work out the financial details so that Fiji could travel to the States on their dime.  Instead, they balked and tried to stick the US with the bill. 

Note how this plays out on the public relations front.  Back in the spring the media trumpeted the story.  "The Slam is on!"  "Unions cooperate for the betterment of world rugby!"  "Philanthropic RFU plays Santa Claus!"  England comes out smelling like roses, if you will excuse the pun.  Then, six months later they back out of the deal and leave Fiji to dry and the story on most rugby sites is a paragraph about the USA dropping the ball. 

Effectively, England told Fiji to bug off so they could make some extra cash against Australia.  When things like this happen, you see why some are questioning how beneficent the big boys in the IRB really are.

Dear Readers,

I feel I must apologise to you. I haven't been around for you over this past fortnight, when I was most needed. I could not tell you why, as I was involved in a mission of utmost secrecy. 

At 0750 hours on July 30, 2009, I parachuted into Melbourne, Victoria, Australia. In order to remain unnoticed, I didn't parachute, rather, I jumped on an Air New Zealand flight [a very good Air New Zealand flight, although turbulence at Wellington Airport + takeoff in pitch black = much gripping of armrests] and did everything, including going through customs.

I was to stay at a safehouse in the inner-city suburb of Fitzroy, maintained by New Zealand operatives. After a taxi ride manned by a deaf Australian driver [or he was pretending to be deaf to learn our secrets], I arrived and set up base camp, only to find in order to avoid being detected, this safehouse operated under radio silence 24/7 - that means no internet! I did not mind though, as it would allow me to record my findings at a later date and avoid being censored.

 After figuring out the city's transport systems in order to better coordinate our insurgency, my accomplice and I set off to the Sandown Racetrack to find out more about the variety of vehicles these bacwards folk use to get around.

 There we were confronted and assaulted by a spectacular herd of beasts, all extremely loud, with a penchant for running around a racetrack and staying within the confines of a fence, sometimes disobeying their human tamers. These are apparently called 'V8 Supercars'.

 The process of gathering intel about these peculiar creatures took several days, but we have managed to identify three main threats:

1. A car owned by 'Videophone', tamed by a fellow named Jaymoi Whinecup. Several references were made to him being the 'series leader' over the weekend, so he must be a captain of sorts.
2. The 'Haich Argh Tee' team of Garth Tender and Woyal Davison. This pairing led the rest of the stampede for the second race on Sunday.
3. The 'DJer' of James Cowtney. Many, many times he was mentioned as being particularly fast, confident and has apparently been in several skirmishes with other cars, which leads me to assume he is a relative youngling, attempting to take Alpha Male status in the group.

 After we shifted focus from this peculiar practice, we asked our hosts if there were any other villains we should keep our eyes on, as the risks posed by The Evil Wizard Mortlock appears to have been quelled by our fierce All Blacks. I was shocked to hear that a young man called Harmichael Kunt had decided to switch battalions, moving to a special-ops squad which is based exclusively in Australia, and can no longer be monitored by the Warriors. This special-ops squad is called Gold Coast Football Club and operates in the AFL battalion. He garnered significant newspaper coverage, so will be one to monitor in the future. He is expected to be deployed in 2011.

 I could not allow my national loyalties to completely die, however. Although I was informed it could jeopardise my cover, I watched the All Blacks test against South Africa. It took me all day to find a suitable venue, as apparently Australians do not enjoy allowing us to follow our mighty Blacks. Two bars in Melbourne show rugby union matches consistently. For operatives who will be deployed in the future, these are The Royal Derby Hotel in Fitzroy, and The Maori Chief, established in 1867 in South Melbourne.

 This concludes my report into the activitied of our Australian counterparts, but I would caution that we must keep an eye on them. I could not help but get the distinct feeling they were not satisfied with their thievery of Robbinson Deans, and are planning another expedition across the Tasman to kidnap more of our brave men. Keep your eyes sharp!