The equation is simple: If we beat the Waratahs in Sydney this Friday night we make the top 4. That's it. If we beat the Tahs there is no way we can't make it in. If a few results go our way - the Crusaders beat the Brumbies and the Stormers lose to the Bulls [regardless of whether they get four tries and lose by less than 7] while we win with a bonus point - we can be back in Wellington next weekend. Hell, if we just win, the Crusaders beat the Brumbies and the Stormers lose without gaining a bonus point, we can get a home semi. But that's not the important thing.

The important thing is we have to win. If we lose we're out, there's no 'mathematical chance'.

Before I get into the teams, I'd like to take a brief trip down the history lane. The Hurricanes have met with the Waratahs 15 times, winning 8 and losing 7. If we take out the semi we won against them in 2006, both teams have won half of the games we've played. Three out of our seven wins have been by more than 13 points, while the Waratahs have beaten us by more than 13 4 times.

Since that 2006 semifinal win [by two points] however, we have not beaten the Tahs. Not once. Last year we lost 26-22, in 2008 there was that incredibly embarrassing 20-3 loss and the last time we met in round 14, 2007, we lost 38-14. That loss was also pretty embarrassing as although we weren't in contention for a top 4 spot, we should have beaten the Tahs. Until that final round, the Tahs had only won two matches - against the Lions and Reds.

These recent losses would suggest the Tahs have the wood on us, but it'll be interesting to see how the teams match up. I haven't watched a Tahs game in full since round 8 but at that point in the season they had not shown anything dramatic to impress me.

Their main strength has been their forward pack. Their loose forwards have adjusted to the new interpretations really well and are great at drawing penalties, particularly re-repatriated Kiwi Dean Mumm. Their front row hasn't appeared to be very good at scrum time, more so [again] at drawing penalties, but is a mobile unit which travels around the field at a great rate of knots.

Their backline has been an enigma. Sure, they've got Berrick Barnes, Tom Carter, Rob Horne, Drew Mitchell and Lachie Turner, but until they put Kurtley Beale [who I think is the JaMarcus Russell of S14 rugby] in at Fullback, they looked incredibly clunky and disjointed. In fact, the majority of the time their only saving grace was Barnes' ability to draw and pass. The only way to disrupt his playmaking ability has appeared to be to get at him.

If someone can get in his face quickly on each phase he tends to rush things, seemingly lacking the ability to simply take the tackle and go to the next phase [Hurricanes fans will be familiar with this style of play, having spent years cringing with Jimmy Gopperth in the side] and favours the step. If we could change our defensive style [though I don't see this happening as it's too large a change to make in a week] and have Piri/Tyson rush at Barnes from the ruck and Cruden cover, it could do a lot to nullify Barnes and also take away the cross-field kick he likes to send to those speedsters, Lachie and Drew.

Their problem appears to be in the centres - they've got two quality wings but can't get the ball out to them quickly enough - while that's one of the Canes' strengths. With Conrad 'Snakey' Smith and Ma'a Nonu we've got a centre pairing which will always be a tough opposition, but since the Crusaders game Ma'a has been in tremendous form [though I do wish he'd pass more often sometimes] and Conrad has been rock solid on defence.

Our forward pack has been - dare I say it - the best out of the NZ sides this competition. We've got the best scrummaging forward pack of all the teams, in my jaded opinion, and the work rate across the field of Victor Vito, Michael Paterson and Andrew Hore is phenomenal. Our problem though has been an indecisiveness at the ruck. We seem to struggle to decide whether to clean out or protect the ball when we're on attack, and whether to try and steal it or guard the fringes when we're on defence.

But our biggest concern heading into this week should be the Tahs biggest strength, the long bomb. We've got Cory Jane who's insanely gifted under the high ball, but aside from that there's Tamati Ellison and Hosea Gear - both are capable enough under the kick, but can't really return serve. And I'm not sure how they will compare to two of the fastest chasers in Australia without being able to rely on the kick to regain territory. If we can stick to our gameplan - phase play using the backs - and not get sucked in to a kicking battle, I think we'll have it in the bag. I'd love to see us get a semi at home, but ultimately let's just go out there and beat the Tahs and get in to the top 4!

•  At the other end of the table, the Lions play the Cheetahs this week and may create a bit of history if they lose. They'll be the first team to lose every game in the Super 14, and the second Super team to go through a season not winning a game since the Bulls in 2002.
• This year's Lions outfit has already conceded the most points ever in Super Rugby after that 2002 team, and if they lose by more than 2pts this weekend they'll officially hold the worst points differential in history. But seeing what that Bulls team has achieved in the last 8 years may give them hope...