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Smiling Dingo Can't Hide From The Numbers

Posted by Naly D on Wednesday, 25 Nov 2009.

Warning: This post is a not-to-subtle call to attention directed at Robbie Deans. Yesterday I tweeted this:

Can anyone guess what these numbers mean? 76, .842 24, .708 27, .519

Graham Henry has been the coach of the All Blacks for 76 matches and has a .842 win percentage. Peter de Viliers, the coach of the Springboks who copped a fair bashing last year, has been in charge for 24 matches and has a .708 win record. I think you know who the third coach is: Robbie Deans. 27 games, .519 win record. He's only just won more than half the internationals he's been the boss for.

Let me see more numbers!

610x__10_.jpgTo put some historical context to this, Henry's predecessor, John Mitchell, was the coach for 28 games [and to save you pointing it out, Robbie Deans was his assistant] and had a .821 record. Wayne Smith as All Blacks coach before Mitchell was in charge for 17 games, .706. Graham Henry in charge of Wales as the 'Great Redeemer' had 36 games and .611 win record. Steve Hansen was in charge of Wales for 31 games, with a .355 number next to his name.

Jake White, who Peter de Viliers replaced as Springboks coach after the 2007 Rugby World Cup to cries of 'trophy coach' was in the main seat for 54 games, and had a .667 number assigned to him. The man Robbie Deans replaced, John Connolly, had the helm for 25 games, 2 less than Deans, and achieved a .644 percentage. Even if you take out the five games at the 2007 Rugby World Cup he was in charge of [four wins and a loss], his percentage at 20 games is still .600.

In fact, of the Tri-Nations countries, this century only Harry Viljoen, Rudolf Straeuli, Smith and Connolly have coached fewer matches than 'Dingo' Deans. Every single coach of a Tri-Nations side has a higher winning percentage than Deans. Every single one.

But rugby teams play more matches now than in the past!

610x__9_.jpgYou're kind of right, ambiguous, unattributed quote. In 2000 and 2002, the Wallabies played 10 games, in 2001, 11, 2004, 12, 2005 and 2006, 13 and 2008 and 2009, 14. [I have excluded Rugby World Cup years]. One more test. And you know what that test match is? The match against the All Blacks in Hong Kong and Tokyo. And if the players were getting tired wouldn't it be the end of year tour results that suffered, while the Tri-Nations were fine? So why are the Wallabies sitting on a .385 winning percentage this year - their worst since 2005 [which had the same number]. If Warren Gatland's Welsh side manage to pull off the Celtic treble, the Wallabies will end the season at .357. The last time they fell below .385 was 1989 - .333.

So when do the 'apologists' [that's what those of us who support the coaches of the All Blacks sometimes get labelled as] stop making excuses? Surely, questions should begin to be asked about now - or will the Australian Rugby Union look at Deans' winning record with the Crusaders in his first two years as coach - .545 from 22 games - and hope he can pull the Wallabies up to the .733 he left the Crusaders with, or is New Zealand the winner, because he might just be a double agent after all...

Disclaimer: These statistics are for international test matches unless otherwise stated. They include games against the Lions [where applicable] and all winning percentages, unless otherwise stated, include Rugby World Cup matches [where applicable]. Matches against the Barbarians are not included.

RugbyBlips: vote it up!

I am really impressed with the quality of posts lately. Keep it up.

Thanks for the feedback. I'll try to, but it'll be hard over summer.

Good stuff, bro. Hopefully Wales will rise to the occasion this weekend.

A stat you don't look at there is the average age of the players he's got. I believe it's about 23?

The reason he's getting cut slack is because this is clearly a regeneration period for the Wallabies.

Not to say he's any longer the Messiah. Plenty of questions being asked at the moment.

That extra game vs the ABs ain't helping the stats though - that's an extra 10% or so, which makes a big hit on the ratio

A good point Gagger.

The average ages for the Tri-Nations teams on their Northern Tour is:
Wallabies
24.77 - 23.85 without Mortlock [I can't remember, was Barnes injured before the start of the tour?]
All Blacks
26.35 - 26.39 without Aled de Malmanche, who was flown in to replace Wyatt Crockett.
Springboks
25.07 - a surprise to me!

They'd be crazy to evict Deans before the World Cup, even with his shitty record

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